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02/15/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Leave it to a wide receiver to add a little spice to what's customarily the blandest period of the NFL year.
With all relatively quiet on the Peyton Manning front for the time being, the noisiest piece of news of this post-Super Bowl lull came from Randy Moss' public declaration that he intends to end a one-year retirement and return to football in 2012.
The announcement, made during an unusual video chat on Moss' 35th birthday on Monday in which the once-feared playmaker also expounded on such thought- provoking subjects as bodily waste and picking one's nose in clear view, grabbed headlines as much for its bizarreness as the well-placed timing of taking place in the mundane week after the league's title game.
While Moss' peculiar rant proved he hasn't lost the ability to entertain since his self-imposed hiatus, the bigger question among personnel executives (other than the understandable ones about his personal stability) is whether a player coming off an uninspiring 2010 campaign in which his employers (three) nearly matched his touchdown total (five) and who carries a history of volatile behavior is even worth the risk at an advanced age.
Moss' desire to play for a championship contender will further limit the crop of suitors, but the greatest barrier standing in his way to a comeback may come from an offseason market that's flooded with attractive options at the wide receiver position.
Five members of this year's unrestricted free agent class had over 1,000 receiving yards in 2011, and four of them -- Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Steve Johnson -- will be between 26 and 29 years old next season and in the prime of their careers. Two others -- Reggie Wayne and DeSean Jackson -- have reached the 1,000-yard mark on multiple occasions and were each considerably more productive than Moss was in his disappointing 2010 tour with New England, Minnesota and Tennessee.
With young talents such as Super Bowl XLVI hero Mario Manningham, Robert Meachem and Laurent Robinson also in line for increased roles and salaries, Moss' path back to the NFL may wind up being even bumpier than first thought.
That's not to say there won't be any interest in his services -- remember that Plaxico Burress was able to land a $3 million deal with the New York Jets at a similar age following a 2 1/2-year exile from football -- and Moss isn't the league-wide pariah that the also-unemployed Terrell Owens has become. And although sporadic, Moss did display moments of the game-breaking skills that made him arguably the most dangerous deep threat the league has ever had in his heyday during his most recent season, as three of his five 2010 scores were on passes of 34 yards or more.
Not surprisingly, the New England Patriots have been popularly mentioned as a possible landing spot for Moss, especially after their Super Bowl XLVI loss revealed the absence of a bona fide offensive field stretcher that the mercurial veteran so ably provided during his stellar previous run with the organization.
There's no denying the Patriots haven't quite been the same from a big-play standpoint since Moss' acrimonious departure four games into the 2010 season. Sure, Tom Brady put up the second-highest amount of passing yards in NFL history in leading New England's run to Indianapolis, but only 10 of his 39 touchdown throws (25.6 percent) were from over 20 yards out.
In Moss' last full season with New England in 2009, nearly 43 percent of Brady's scoring strikes (12 of 28) were 20 yards or more.
It's more likely, however, that the 2012 version of Moss will resemble the 2011 edition of Burress -- a factor inside the red zone with minimal impact in the middle of the field. And the Patriots may find a better fit on the market in someone like Brandon Lloyd, four years younger than Moss and someone who flourished in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' system in Denver two years back, when he led the NFL in receiving yards and averaged nearly 19 yards per catch.
The Jets and Philadelphia also have been brought up as potential destinations, in part because both flirted with the idea of signing Moss last summer. New York doesn't seem to be an ideal match, as a reputed malcontent would figure to be at the bottom of the wish list of a team that just had a promising season derailed by toxic locker-room chemistry needs, but the Eagles would make some sense considering their need for a proven weapon within the red zone, an area where the slightly built DeSean Jackson has often been neutralized.
Jackson's name also has been in the news of late, with the Philadelphia Inquirer reporting over the weekend that the team intends to place the franchise tag on the speed demon. It's probably the Eagles' best course of action as well, with such a maneuver allowing the organization to keep dangling the carrot to a player with injury concerns whose main motivation has been securing a long-term contract. And heading into a season that's been clearly earmarked as a boom-or-bust one for head coach Andy Reid and his staff, it's also a move that would help ease the transition for the extensive overhaul that would take place if the Eagles again fail to meet expectations.
Don't be shocked if a few other teams utilize that same strategy, as this year's franchise tender for wide receivers is expected to be around $9.5 million, significantly less restrictive than the 2011 number of $11.4 million. Bowe and Johnson would be logical candidates to be tagged if their respective teams aren't able to reach a multi-year pact prior to free agency, as would Moss' former New England teammate, Wes Welker.
One receiver who's almost certain to hit the market is Vincent Jackson. Since the San Diego standout was franchised by the Chargers last season, the team would be obligated to pay him 120 percent of his 2011 salary, which would come to a prohibitive $13.68 million, and the Bolts may not have the available cap space to match what the 29-year-old standout would command as arguably the top receiver of this year's free-agent group. With the 2012 class so deep at wideout, it's more likely general manager A.J. Smith explores a cheaper alternative while concentrating on filling holes along the offensive line.
Another name to watch on the free-agent front could be Pittsburgh's Mike Wallace. Though the fleet-footed receiver is only eligible for restricted free agency with just three years of service, the Steelers have major cap problems and could conceivably lack the resources to match a competing offer if unable to lock him up to a long-term deal. The new collective bargaining agreement instituted after last summer's lockout has given teams more incentive to pursue RFA's, with the maximum compensation having been reduced from a first- and third-round draft pick to solely a first.
EXTRA POINTS
It's now been seven years since a team has repeated as Super Bowl champion, and early indications suggest the public believes that streak will continue. According to RJ Bell at Pregame.com, the New York Giants opened at 13-1 odds to capture a second straight Lombardi Trophy, which stands behind seven teams on the initial line. Green Bay tops the chart at 5-1, followed by New Orleans (6-1) and New England (8-1). Philadelphia, which finished a game back of Big Blue in the NFC East, is tied with Baltimore and Pittsburgh for fourth on the list at 12-1.
Pregame.com also gives Manning a 14 percent chance of returning to the Colts for next season, with Miami (20 percent) or Washington (17 percent) viewed as the legendary quarterback's most logical destination, as well as a 20 percent chance of retiring. It's hard to buy the Redskins as a legitimate suitor, however. Being forced to go head-to-head with his brother twice a season would be uncomfortable enough, but Manning's not going to want any part of the inevitable power struggle that would ensue between he and fellow control-freak Mike Shanahan over offensive philosophy.
Though I've never been much of a fan of Whitney Houston's record, her performance of the national anthem at Super Bowl XXV more than 20 years ago is still the best rendition I've ever heard. What an amazing talent.
Do the right thing, Hines Ward. There's no sense in tarnishing your legacy by hanging on another year as a bit player with another team, especially with two Super Bowl rings already in the jewelry case. Ask Franco Harris how much he cherishes that year he spent with the Seattle Seahawks.
Early prediction for the 2012 season opener: Steelers at Giants. Though the league has been reluctant to kick things off with an interconference match-up since it first began designating the reigning Super Bowl winner to host its lid-lifter in 2004, with Saints-Colts in '07 the lone clash involving both an AFC and NFC representative, the tradition, popularity and recent success of these two franchises would make this an awfully tantalizing first game.
The Packers at Giants is a distinct possibility as well, as that would pit the last two Super Bowl champs in a season opener for the second straight year.
<< Eskimos sign WR Koch
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Edmonton Eskimos found a replacement for
the departed Jason Barnes on Wednesday, signing wide receiver Cary Koch.
"Cary missed much of 2011 with an injury, but within the football fraternity
his talen
<< Five-a-Side: Ivy League's Robin Harris
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The big question with Ivy League football
often centers around the school presidents keeping the league champion on
the sidelines during the FCS playoffs.
This week, another important issue develop
<< Marsh, Phillips agree to terms with Lions
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The British Columbia Lions signed defensive
backs Ryan Phillips and Dante Marsh on Wednesday.
Phillips returns for his eighth season with the defending Grey Cup champions
and was eligible for free agenc
<< Argonauts ink WR Barnes
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Argonauts inked wideout Jason
Barnes, signing the fleet receiver through 2013.
Barnes, who was plucked from the Edmonton Eskimos, will be reunited with
former Esks quarterback and curren
Erakovic wins Bogota opener; Dominguez Lino ousted >>
Bogota, Colombia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-seeded Marina Erakovic of New
Zealand was an easy opening-round winner, while reigning champion Lourdes
Dominguez Lino went by way of a second-round upset at the $220,000 Copa BBVA
Colsani
Ferrero exits Sao Paulo >>
Sao Paulo, Brazil (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former world No. 1 Juan Carlos Ferrero
was sent packing in the opening round Wednesday at the $475,300 Brasil Open.
Argentine Leonardo Mayer toppled the sixth-seeded Ferrero in 7-6 (8-6), 6-2
fashion a
Juve held to scoreless draw in Parma >>
Parma, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juventus missed out on a chance to return to
the Serie A summit on Wednesday as the club was held to a 0-0 draw at Parma.
Juve's weekend match with Bologna was postponed because of poor weather, which
allowe
Hollendorfer has two for El Camino Real Derby >>
Berkeley, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - California Derby winner Russian Greek heads a
field of 10 three-year-olds for Saturday's $200,000 El Camino Real Derby at
Golden Gate Fields. The 1 1/8-mile El Camino Real is the final local prep
leading
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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